Bitcoin’s price had a rough last week on the back of new negative news. First, the SEC threatened to bring cryptocurrency exchanges under its purview. Then, one of the most prominent exchanges in the cryptocurrency ecosystem was hacked. A Japanese bitcoin whale was also revealed early last week. He admitted to making block sales of bitcoin to refund investors in Mt. Gox, the exchange that went bust in 2014.
But the weekend brought good tidings.
Bitcoin’s price rallied by 14% and almost touched $10,000 during that time period. Come Monday, however, the cryptocurrency’s price was back in a slump. At 19:54 UTC, the price of a single bitcoin was $9202.36, down 3.47% in the last 24 hours. That price represents a slide of more than 21% since Friday and a decline of 27% on a weekly basis.
Nine out of the top 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies are also in the red, as of this writing. Cardano is the sole exception, displaying an increase of 2.1% in its price as of this writing. But that’s not saying much, when you consider that it is down by 68.1% from its price at the start of this year.
Valuations for overall cryptocurrency markets are similarly grim. On the back of surging prices for individual cryptocurrencies, the overall market cap almost touched $400 billion. At 20:00 UTC, it is $375 billion.
Is Misery = Bitcoin? Using Sentiment To Predict Bitcoin’s Price
At least that might be the dominant emotion for bitcoin investors, given the recent slump in its price and negative news accompanying the cryptocurrency. Noted analyst Thomas Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors has come out with a “Bitcoin Misery Index” “as a way to measure how happy or sad you are about owning bitcoin”. Values for the index range between 0 and 100 and it is currently at 19.
According to him, this is the lowest trading since August of 2011. Despite the cryptocurrency’s setbacks, bitcoin’s investors are generally an optimistic lot. So the misery index’s low values are a cause for concern for Lee. “It is really uncommon to be this miserable owning bitcoin,” he told CNBC. He said the index was a contrary indicator meaning it had an inverse relationship to future price events.
According to him, the last four times that the index was below 27 were great times to enter the cryptocurrency. As examples, bitcoin’s misery index was low in Nov 2012, Jan 2015, and Sep 2016 but tracked higher a month later.
Financial data powerhouse Thomson Reuters has also joined the fray and included a bitcoin data feed as part of its MarketPsych Indices, a new product launched Friday. The index measures three types of indicators: emotional indicators (such as fear, joy, and trust as expressed on social media platforms), fundamental perceptions (such as earnings forecasts and long versus short discussions) and buzz metrics. “Our customers can use it to generate alpha. They can drive positive investment returns. They can use it to better balance the risk in their portfolios,” Austin Burkett, Global Head of Quants and Feeds at Reuters, told Coindesk.