Notes 5/31: Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin price cannot seem to make up its mind.

It jumped past $28,000 over the weekend after the announcement of a debt ceiling deal between Democrats and Republicans. But it has shed those gains since. As of this writing, the cryptocurrency is changing hands for $27,112, down 2.4% in the last 24 hours.

The Debt Ceiling Danger

A debt ceiling agreement should have been good news for bitcoin because it means that the danger of default for treasury securities. that prop stablecoin reserves accounting for most trading volume against bitcoin, may have been averted.

Tether’s USDT is the biggest problem in this regard. The unregulated stablecoin claims that its tokens, which have blanketed the crypto ecosystem since the beginning of this year, are backed by US Treasury securities. Circle, a competing stablecoin, has gotten rid of its treasury bill holdings and replaced them with overnight repo bills, according to a CoinDesk report.

A Jittery Trade

News that legislators are inching towards a final version of the agreement later today should have assuaged concerns of crypto traders. But they are still jittery.

According to CoinGlass data, slightly more than $25 million of the cryptocurrency has been liquidated in the last 24 hours. With a total of almost $22 million, long positions dominate that figure, signaling a loss of confidence about future price trends for the cryptocurrency.

This liquidation data contrasts with the expiration of $2.3 billion in bitcoin options open interest this past Friday. An expiration of open interest options can produce a price bump, not unlike the one witnessed after the debt ceiling deal announcement. But the effect of the options expiry was muted because bitcoin’s implied volatility is low.

A Future Price Bump?

The next date for options expiry is June 30. Will bitcoin price revive by then?

It is difficult to make a case for positive sentiment about the cryptocurrency right now. Its biggest volumes are still concentrated at centralized exchanges, which are under increasing regulatory threat from regulators in the United States. The cryptocurrency’s biggest trading partner is Tether’s USDT – a stablecoin rife with scandals. A problem with Tether will ripple out into the wider bitcoin, and crypto, ecosystem.

With the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike at the next Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting increasing, bitcoin price faces multiple pressures. Labor markets also remain tight. The interest rates currently being offered at money market funds make them look more attractive than bitcoin right now.

The cryptocurrency’s liquidity is tight and its price volatility, an attraction for investors looking for short-term profits, remains low. The difficulty level of its algorithm is also at record highs right now, declining its supply in the market.

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